2021 Oscars Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

The first rule of show business is The Show Must Go On. So even though hardly anyone actually went to the movies last year, and even though we've expanded what "the year" is (much to the benefit of some worthy films) we're still having an Oscars telecast.

The 93rd Academy Awards, which will broadcast from multiple locations, including the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, may end up being the last substantial awards show done virtually. (We hope. We pray.)

Here's my morning reaction (still in my pajamas!) to the nominations for the major awards. (Head here for the full list of 2021 Oscar nominees.)

Best Picture

The nominees are The Father, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Judas and the Black Messiah, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. It's a solid eight films. Quite frankly, six of these could go away with the top prize and I could see myself cheering along. (The Trial of the Chicago 7, to me, is merely good-not-great, while Mank, I feel, is a bit of a whiff.) Obviously some good movies got overlooked. It's a shame about First Cow and Never Rarely Sometimes Always not getting a nod; they should have been on this list instead.

WHO WILL WIN
I believe the winner will be Nomadland. It's a solid choice, and near impossible to dislike. The Academy loves Frances McDormand, and the story of aimlessness and loss is particularly resonant in this very unsettling year.

WHO SHOULD WIN
I do like Nomadland a lot, but I personally don't think it should get that top prize. The right pick (i.e. my pick) is... Minari. And it kills me to say that, because Judas and the Black Messiah is right on its heels. But Minari, Lee Isaac Chung's semi-autobiographical story about a South Korean immigrant family living in the midwest in the 1980s, is just such a rich, wonderful and real story.

Best Director

The nominees are Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), and Chloé Zhao (Nomadland). I say these are all pretty solid choices, minus Fincher for the dubious Mank. (I like many of Fincher's other pictures, just not this one.) Weird to think The Father and Judas and the Black Messiah directed themselves, but OK. It's also a shame that Eliza Hittman for Never Rarely Sometimes Always got ignored.

WHO WILL WIN
Oftentimes splitting Best Picture and Best Director is a way of saying first and second place, but this year I have a hunch both awards will go to Nomadland. Therefore, I think Chloé Zhao will be the winner here. She's also someone the Academy will want to champion as a new genius in their midst, plus she's also already part of the machine, having delivered a forthcoming Marvel film, Eternals.

WHO SHOULD WIN
Even though Nomadland is not my choice for Best Picture, I would give Zhao this prize. Her style is extraordinary, and she's kind of come out of nowhere, in terms of industry recognition, with only two very low budget movies (Songs My Brothers Taught Me and The Rider) before this. Also, she directed the hell out of Nomadland, working with non-actors, finding incredible locations, and crafting a great and substantial film out of a simple story.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees are Maria Bakalova (Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm), Olivia Colman (The Father), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), and Youn Yuh-jung (Minari). These are all fine selections except for Glenn Close. Her performance in Hillbilly Elegy is great if you want to make animated reaction GIFs of mugging faces, but not much else. Note that I like Amanda Seyfried; she's the best part of Mank. I wish Talia Ryder from Never Rarely Sometimes Always were here somewhere.

WHO WILL WIN
It's a toughie! My prediction is that you will see Olivia Colman come away with the statue. Academy voters love her (maybe more for The Crown than anything else) and even though she won not long ago for The Favourite I'm betting on her. Also, voters will want to salute The Father some way, and this might be the only thing to win for that movie.

WHO SHOULD WIN
Obviously the chaos agent in me wants Maria Bakalova from Borat to win, but maybe that is just a case of someone who should feel honored to be nominated. Youn Yuh-jung, the granny from Minari, has my heart.

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees are Sacha Baron Cohen (Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami…), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), and LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah). All of these are good, even though there is some weirdness going on. LaKeith Stanfield is the lead of Judas. The narrative arc follows him; it's his movie. I don't understand. I didn't much care for One Night in Miami…, but Odom is very good in it.

WHO WILL WIN
Sacha Baron Cohen will win. He's a force in the industry, and the older members of the Academy will want to salute Abbie Hoffman and Chicago 7 in general. I'd prefer if he were winning for the character of Borat, but that's life. Oscar-winner Sacha Baron Cohen. Bank on it.

WHO SHOULD WIN
Well, it's strange. If I am voting, and looking at these performances, my vote goes to LaKeith Stanfield. But he's not a supporting actor. Still, he's who should win, if these are the nominees. If Stanfield were in Best Actor where he belongs, then I'd say Paul Raci, the mentor to Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal.

Best Actress

The nominees are Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman). Hats off to the voters for remembering Pieces of a Woman. Kirby won't win, but that's cool. Sidney Flanigan of Never Rarely Sometimes Always not being in here is criminal; go see that movie.

WHO WILL WIN
Carey Mulligan will win. She's been nominated before (An Education), and she's consistently great. Promising Young Woman is a strong, genre-hopping film about vengeance against sexual predators, and it just wouldn't work without the right person in the lead. It's a very memorable role, and the Academy voters can applaud themselves for picking something "a little different" with this Sundance debut from a first time filmmaker. Plus Frances McDormand already has two Oscars.

WHO SHOULD WIN
See above.

Best Actor

The nominees are Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), and Steven Yeun (Minari). I have to wonder if the nominating body actually watched Da 5 Bloods, because the lack of Delroy Lindo here is a crime. A crime! Gary Oldman, you should hang your head in shame. You just won an Oscar and you aren't getting another one. Call up Delroy Lindo right now and apologize!

WHO WILL WIN
Chadwick Boseman will win, obviously. He's absolutely magnetic in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, a movie that, by the way, proves that you can just basically film a play and make it work. Boseman's win is a lock not just because he is great, but also because of the outpouring of emotion following his shocking death last year.

WHO SHOULD WIN
OK, so now it's time for me to come off like a jerk. Boseman is really great in Ma Rainey, and I will cheer when he wins. But if you've come to me to know what the best performance of this group is, the real answer is that Boseman is the bronze medalist. Second place is Riz Ahmed, as the rock drummer who suddenly goes deaf in Sound of Metal. But the best acting you'll see all year is actually in the little-watched The Father. Anthony Hopkins will rip your heart out and chomp it into tiny pieces in this extraordinary first-person narrative of a man suffering dementia.

Additional Commentary

The Best Animated film Oscar would go to Wolfwalkers if there were any justice, but it will probably go to Soul. The best foreign language film will likely go to Another Round, and it is a terrific movie. Of the nominees, it has my vote, but the Spanish language film La Llorona, from Guatemala, was robbed. I predict that One Night in Miami… will be a surprise win for Best Adapted Screenplay. I am just going with my gut there. Best Screenplay will surely go to Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7. Visual effects will rightly go to Tenet, a movie that didn't get enough respect from critics. Oscars!